Since we have good empirical data from within the basin and around Idaho it makes sense to compare how well Siegel’s model fits our empirical data. But we have a couple different options we will explore below:
First, we will load in the data provided by Gwynne from the archives she dug up (not sure provenance of this data.
Gwynne’s data has a lot more sites than we have spawning locations. So we’ll first consider the whole basin.
We can look at the model fit (R^2 = 0.718):
mod_gwynne<- lm(DAILY_AVG_TEMP_C ~ prd.stream_temp , data = all_temps)
sjPlot::tab_model(mod_gwynne)
| DAILY_AVG_TEMP_C | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | -0.09 | -0.18 – 0.00 | 0.053 |
| prd stream temp | 1.01 | 1.00 – 1.02 | <0.001 |
| Observations | 24382 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.718 / 0.718 | ||
An alternative would be just to look in COMIDs that have redds in them:
Model performs slightly worse by R^2 when we take it down just to spawning locations.
| DAILY_AVG_TEMP_C | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 1.42 | 1.22 – 1.62 | <0.001 |
| prd stream temp | 0.89 | 0.88 – 0.91 | <0.001 |
| Observations | 5211 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.662 / 0.662 | ||
An alternative option is to compare with Dan’s 2018 dataset which has hundreds of sites
| DailyMean | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | -0.12 | -0.12 – -0.11 | <0.001 |
| Stream Temp | 1.00 | 1.00 – 1.00 | <0.001 |
| Observations | 354029 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.933 / 0.933 | ||
The basic tradeoff here is Gwynne’s data are in basin but only cover summer months (see table below). However, we could instead use Dan’s 2018 data, the benefit being it has multiple years of data across the exact same dates. The downside being none of the sites are in the Middle Fork Salmon.
| StreamName | year | max_date | min_date | days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banner Creek | 2004 | 2004-09-05 | 2004-06-16 | 81 days |
| Bear Valley Creek | 2004 | 2004-09-26 | 2004-06-14 | 104 days |
| Bear Valley Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-17 | 94 days |
| Bear Valley Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-26 | 2006-07-01 | 87 days |
| Bearskin Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-18 | 2005-06-17 | 93 days |
| Beaver Creek | 2004 | 2004-09-14 | 2004-06-16 | 90 days |
| Beaver Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-16 | 95 days |
| Bell Creek | 2005 | 2005-07-31 | 2005-06-24 | 37 days |
| Belvedere Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-13 | 2005-07-01 | 74 days |
| Belvedere Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-14 | 2006-07-13 | 63 days |
| Big Chief Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-04 | 2005-07-12 | 84 days |
| Big Cottonwood Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-29 | 2005-07-08 | 83 days |
| Big Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-28 | 2005-06-29 | 91 days |
| Big Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-15 | 2006-07-14 | 63 days |
| Cabin Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-28 | 2005-07-07 | 83 days |
| Cache Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-28 | 2005-06-17 | 103 days |
| Camas Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-20 | 2005-06-18 | 94 days |
| Camas Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-18 | 2006-07-13 | 67 days |
| Canyon Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-27 | 2005-07-08 | 81 days |
| Cape Horn Creek | 2004 | 2004-09-26 | 2004-06-16 | 102 days |
| Cape Horn Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-16 | 95 days |
| Cape Horn Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-26 | 2006-07-01 | 87 days |
| Castle creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-17 | 94 days |
| Cat Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-27 | 2005-07-12 | 77 days |
| Cold Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-17 | 94 days |
| Cook Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-18 | 2005-06-17 | 93 days |
| Cottonwood Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-23 | 2005-07-12 | 103 days |
| Cougar Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-11 | 2005-07-16 | 57 days |
| Dagger Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-18 | 93 days |
| Duffield Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-04 | 2005-07-08 | 88 days |
| EF Elk Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-23 | 88 days |
| EF Little Elk Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-23 | 88 days |
| EF Mayfield Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-30 | 2005-07-12 | 80 days |
| Elk Creek | 2004 | 2004-09-24 | 2004-06-14 | 102 days |
| Elk Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-17 | 94 days |
| Fir Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-17 | 94 days |
| Fly Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-30 | 81 days |
| Furnace Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-19 | 92 days |
| Government Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-13 | 2005-06-29 | 76 days |
| Grouse Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-30 | 2005-07-12 | 80 days |
| Holy Terror Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-11 | 2005-06-28 | 75 days |
| Indian Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-04 | 2005-07-12 | 84 days |
| Jacobs Ladder Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-13 | 2005-06-29 | 76 days |
| Knapp Creek | 2004 | 2004-09-26 | 2004-06-15 | 103 days |
| Knapp Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-16 | 95 days |
| Knapp Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-24 | 2006-07-01 | 85 days |
| Lewis Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-28 | 2005-07-12 | 78 days |
| Lime Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-04 | 2005-06-24 | 102 days |
| Little Marble Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-13 | 2005-06-30 | 75 days |
| Little Marble Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-15 | 2006-07-14 | 63 days |
| Little Pistol Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-01 | 2005-07-12 | 81 days |
| Logan Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-13 | 2005-06-29 | 76 days |
| Logan Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-15 | 2006-07-14 | 63 days |
| Loon Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-30 | 2005-07-11 | 81 days |
| Loon Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-19 | 2006-07-13 | 68 days |
| Luger Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-30 | 2005-07-11 | 81 days |
| MF Indian Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-03 | 2005-07-14 | 81 days |
| MF Salmon River | 2005 | 2005-10-25 | 2005-06-17 | 130 days |
| Mahoney Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-27 | 2005-07-12 | 77 days |
| Marble Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-25 | 2005-07-12 | 105 days |
| Marsh Creek | 2004 | 2004-09-26 | 2004-06-15 | 103 days |
| Marsh Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-16 | 95 days |
| Marsh Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-26 | 2006-07-01 | 87 days |
| Mayfield Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-30 | 2005-07-12 | 80 days |
| Monumental Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-12 | 2005-06-28 | 76 days |
| Monumental Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-15 | 2006-07-13 | 64 days |
| Mud Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-11 | 2005-06-28 | 75 days |
| NF Elk Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-23 | 88 days |
| NF Sulphur Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-18 | 2005-06-24 | 86 days |
| Nameless Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-16 | 95 days |
| Nameless Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-26 | 2006-07-01 | 87 days |
| Parker Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-27 | 2005-07-07 | 82 days |
| Pioneer Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-30 | 2005-07-12 | 80 days |
| Pistol Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-01 | 2005-07-11 | 82 days |
| Porter Creek | 2004 | 2004-09-24 | 2004-06-17 | 99 days |
| Porter Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-18 | 2005-06-23 | 87 days |
| Porter Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-25 | 2006-07-03 | 84 days |
| Ramey Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-15 | 2006-07-14 | 63 days |
| Rapid River | 2005 | 2005-10-05 | 2005-06-23 | 104 days |
| Rock Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-28 | 2005-07-11 | 79 days |
| Rock Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-15 | 2006-07-15 | 62 days |
| Rush Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-28 | 2005-07-12 | 78 days |
| SF Camas Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-07-01 | 80 days |
| SF of WF Monumental Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-11 | 2005-06-29 | 74 days |
| Sack Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-18 | 2005-06-17 | 93 days |
| Sheep Trail Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-18 | 2005-06-17 | 93 days |
| Silver Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-18 | 2005-06-16 | 94 days |
| Silver Creek | 2006 | 2006-09-17 | 2006-07-14 | 65 days |
| Smith Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-08 | 2005-06-30 | 70 days |
| Snowshoe Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-27 | 2005-07-12 | 77 days |
| Snowslide Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-11 | 2005-06-30 | 73 days |
| Sulphur Creek | 2004 | 2004-09-25 | 2004-06-15 | 102 days |
| Sulphur Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-04 | 2005-06-18 | 108 days |
| Sulphur Creek | 2006 | 2006-10-04 | 2006-07-03 | 93 days |
| Thomas Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-25 | 2005-07-14 | 103 days |
| Trail Creek | 2005 | 2005-10-24 | 2005-07-12 | 104 days |
| Trapper Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-27 | 2005-07-07 | 82 days |
| WF Camas Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-20 | 2005-06-18 | 94 days |
| WF Elk Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-23 | 88 days |
| WF Mayfield Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-30 | 2005-07-12 | 80 days |
| WF Monumental Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-11 | 2005-06-28 | 75 days |
| Warm Springs Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-28 | 2005-07-07 | 83 days |
| Waterfall Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-27 | 2005-07-07 | 82 days |
| White Goat Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-19 | 92 days |
| Wildhorse Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-12 | 2005-06-29 | 75 days |
| Winnemucca Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-16 | 95 days |
| Wyoming Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-19 | 2005-06-17 | 94 days |
| Yellowjacket Creek | 2005 | 2005-09-20 | 2005-06-17 | 95 days |