1 Justification

Since we have good empirical data from within the basin and around Idaho it makes sense to compare how well Siegel’s model fits our empirical data. But we have a couple different options we will explore below:

2 Compare with Gwynne’s archival data

First, we will load in the data provided by Gwynne from the archives she dug up (not sure provenance of this data.

2.1 Consider all sites

Gwynne’s data has a lot more sites than we have spawning locations. So we’ll first consider the whole basin.

2.1.1 Fit by stream

2.1.2 Fit for all sites

2.1.3 Visualize Temp ~ Stream and Month

2.1.4 Model Fit

We can look at the model fit (R^2 = 0.718):

mod_gwynne<- lm(DAILY_AVG_TEMP_C ~ prd.stream_temp , data = all_temps)

sjPlot::tab_model(mod_gwynne)
  DAILY_AVG_TEMP_C
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) -0.09 -0.18 – 0.00 0.053
prd stream temp 1.01 1.00 – 1.02 <0.001
Observations 24382
R2 / R2 adjusted 0.718 / 0.718

2.2 Fit by spawning data

An alternative would be just to look in COMIDs that have redds in them:

2.2.1 Fit by stream

2.2.2 Visualize Temp ~ Month + Stream

2.2.3 Model fit

Model performs slightly worse by R^2 when we take it down just to spawning locations.

  DAILY_AVG_TEMP_C
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) 1.42 1.22 – 1.62 <0.001
prd stream temp 0.89 0.88 – 0.91 <0.001
Observations 5211
R2 / R2 adjusted 0.662 / 0.662

3 Idaho Data

An alternative option is to compare with Dan’s 2018 dataset which has hundreds of sites

3.1 Model

  DailyMean
Predictors Estimates CI p
(Intercept) -0.12 -0.12 – -0.11 <0.001
Stream Temp 1.00 1.00 – 1.00 <0.001
Observations 354029
R2 / R2 adjusted 0.933 / 0.933

3.2 Model Plot

3.3 Isaak fit by month

4 Summary

The basic tradeoff here is Gwynne’s data are in basin but only cover summer months (see table below). However, we could instead use Dan’s 2018 data, the benefit being it has multiple years of data across the exact same dates. The downside being none of the sites are in the Middle Fork Salmon.

StreamName year max_date min_date days
Banner Creek 2004 2004-09-05 2004-06-16 81 days
Bear Valley Creek 2004 2004-09-26 2004-06-14 104 days
Bear Valley Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-17 94 days
Bear Valley Creek 2006 2006-09-26 2006-07-01 87 days
Bearskin Creek 2005 2005-09-18 2005-06-17 93 days
Beaver Creek 2004 2004-09-14 2004-06-16 90 days
Beaver Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-16 95 days
Bell Creek 2005 2005-07-31 2005-06-24 37 days
Belvedere Creek 2005 2005-09-13 2005-07-01 74 days
Belvedere Creek 2006 2006-09-14 2006-07-13 63 days
Big Chief Creek 2005 2005-10-04 2005-07-12 84 days
Big Cottonwood Creek 2005 2005-09-29 2005-07-08 83 days
Big Creek 2005 2005-09-28 2005-06-29 91 days
Big Creek 2006 2006-09-15 2006-07-14 63 days
Cabin Creek 2005 2005-09-28 2005-07-07 83 days
Cache Creek 2005 2005-09-28 2005-06-17 103 days
Camas Creek 2005 2005-09-20 2005-06-18 94 days
Camas Creek 2006 2006-09-18 2006-07-13 67 days
Canyon Creek 2005 2005-09-27 2005-07-08 81 days
Cape Horn Creek 2004 2004-09-26 2004-06-16 102 days
Cape Horn Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-16 95 days
Cape Horn Creek 2006 2006-09-26 2006-07-01 87 days
Castle creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-17 94 days
Cat Creek 2005 2005-09-27 2005-07-12 77 days
Cold Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-17 94 days
Cook Creek 2005 2005-09-18 2005-06-17 93 days
Cottonwood Creek 2005 2005-10-23 2005-07-12 103 days
Cougar Creek 2005 2005-09-11 2005-07-16 57 days
Dagger Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-18 93 days
Duffield Creek 2005 2005-10-04 2005-07-08 88 days
EF Elk Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-23 88 days
EF Little Elk Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-23 88 days
EF Mayfield Creek 2005 2005-09-30 2005-07-12 80 days
Elk Creek 2004 2004-09-24 2004-06-14 102 days
Elk Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-17 94 days
Fir Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-17 94 days
Fly Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-30 81 days
Furnace Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-19 92 days
Government Creek 2005 2005-09-13 2005-06-29 76 days
Grouse Creek 2005 2005-09-30 2005-07-12 80 days
Holy Terror Creek 2005 2005-09-11 2005-06-28 75 days
Indian Creek 2005 2005-10-04 2005-07-12 84 days
Jacobs Ladder Creek 2005 2005-09-13 2005-06-29 76 days
Knapp Creek 2004 2004-09-26 2004-06-15 103 days
Knapp Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-16 95 days
Knapp Creek 2006 2006-09-24 2006-07-01 85 days
Lewis Creek 2005 2005-09-28 2005-07-12 78 days
Lime Creek 2005 2005-10-04 2005-06-24 102 days
Little Marble Creek 2005 2005-09-13 2005-06-30 75 days
Little Marble Creek 2006 2006-09-15 2006-07-14 63 days
Little Pistol Creek 2005 2005-10-01 2005-07-12 81 days
Logan Creek 2005 2005-09-13 2005-06-29 76 days
Logan Creek 2006 2006-09-15 2006-07-14 63 days
Loon Creek 2005 2005-09-30 2005-07-11 81 days
Loon Creek 2006 2006-09-19 2006-07-13 68 days
Luger Creek 2005 2005-09-30 2005-07-11 81 days
MF Indian Creek 2005 2005-10-03 2005-07-14 81 days
MF Salmon River 2005 2005-10-25 2005-06-17 130 days
Mahoney Creek 2005 2005-09-27 2005-07-12 77 days
Marble Creek 2005 2005-10-25 2005-07-12 105 days
Marsh Creek 2004 2004-09-26 2004-06-15 103 days
Marsh Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-16 95 days
Marsh Creek 2006 2006-09-26 2006-07-01 87 days
Mayfield Creek 2005 2005-09-30 2005-07-12 80 days
Monumental Creek 2005 2005-09-12 2005-06-28 76 days
Monumental Creek 2006 2006-09-15 2006-07-13 64 days
Mud Creek 2005 2005-09-11 2005-06-28 75 days
NF Elk Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-23 88 days
NF Sulphur Creek 2005 2005-09-18 2005-06-24 86 days
Nameless Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-16 95 days
Nameless Creek 2006 2006-09-26 2006-07-01 87 days
Parker Creek 2005 2005-09-27 2005-07-07 82 days
Pioneer Creek 2005 2005-09-30 2005-07-12 80 days
Pistol Creek 2005 2005-10-01 2005-07-11 82 days
Porter Creek 2004 2004-09-24 2004-06-17 99 days
Porter Creek 2005 2005-09-18 2005-06-23 87 days
Porter Creek 2006 2006-09-25 2006-07-03 84 days
Ramey Creek 2006 2006-09-15 2006-07-14 63 days
Rapid River 2005 2005-10-05 2005-06-23 104 days
Rock Creek 2005 2005-09-28 2005-07-11 79 days
Rock Creek 2006 2006-09-15 2006-07-15 62 days
Rush Creek 2005 2005-09-28 2005-07-12 78 days
SF Camas Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-07-01 80 days
SF of WF Monumental Creek 2005 2005-09-11 2005-06-29 74 days
Sack Creek 2005 2005-09-18 2005-06-17 93 days
Sheep Trail Creek 2005 2005-09-18 2005-06-17 93 days
Silver Creek 2005 2005-09-18 2005-06-16 94 days
Silver Creek 2006 2006-09-17 2006-07-14 65 days
Smith Creek 2005 2005-09-08 2005-06-30 70 days
Snowshoe Creek 2005 2005-09-27 2005-07-12 77 days
Snowslide Creek 2005 2005-09-11 2005-06-30 73 days
Sulphur Creek 2004 2004-09-25 2004-06-15 102 days
Sulphur Creek 2005 2005-10-04 2005-06-18 108 days
Sulphur Creek 2006 2006-10-04 2006-07-03 93 days
Thomas Creek 2005 2005-10-25 2005-07-14 103 days
Trail Creek 2005 2005-10-24 2005-07-12 104 days
Trapper Creek 2005 2005-09-27 2005-07-07 82 days
WF Camas Creek 2005 2005-09-20 2005-06-18 94 days
WF Elk Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-23 88 days
WF Mayfield Creek 2005 2005-09-30 2005-07-12 80 days
WF Monumental Creek 2005 2005-09-11 2005-06-28 75 days
Warm Springs Creek 2005 2005-09-28 2005-07-07 83 days
Waterfall Creek 2005 2005-09-27 2005-07-07 82 days
White Goat Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-19 92 days
Wildhorse Creek 2005 2005-09-12 2005-06-29 75 days
Winnemucca Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-16 95 days
Wyoming Creek 2005 2005-09-19 2005-06-17 94 days
Yellowjacket Creek 2005 2005-09-20 2005-06-17 95 days